With all eyes focused on the Tropics this time of year, and with the East Coast preparing for Hanna, this question came at the right time!

Michael writes:

"I really like the forecast images showing possible rainfall projections for Hanna.  What are the odds the next storm, Ike, will impact our region?  Thanks."

Let's start with Tropical Storm Hanna.  All indications are that Hanna will remain a Tropical Storm when she makes landfall this evening across the Carolinas.  Here is the latest view of the Tropics as a whole:

The National Hurricane Center keeps Hanna's track to our east.  This means that the really nasty stuff will stay over New Jersey.  We will see a rainy and breezy day tomorrow, but there shouldn't be any severe threat.  As for flooding, some of our counties are under a flood watch from tomorrow morning through Sunday afternoon.  Those counties include Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, and York.  There really is not any concern for major flooding out of this system because it will be a fast mover, and as I stated earlier, the heaviest rains should stay to our east.  Flash flooding may become an issue if Hanna dumps a lot of rain over a single spot in a short amount of time.  We will have to wait and see on that one.  For now, plan on an old-fashioned rainy day for Saturday.  Hopefully, this rain will be beneficial for most folks.

Here are some forecast model images of where the rainfall will be located tomorrow at 8:00AM and 2:00PM, respectively.

Notice a nice narrow band of rain located over Eastern Pennsylvania tomorrow morning.  This should help funnel in some much needed moisture around these parts.  Hanna's center will still be well to our south at this time.  The main area of low pressure is located across the Carolinas.

This image shows Hanna by Saturday afternoon.  Now the center is located just south of New Jersey.  Take note of the big red blob underneath that low.  That blob is the main area of precipitation associated with Hanna.  We look to miss out on that...this is good news for flooding concerns.  However, it will continue to rain throughout much of the day tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center has released Hanna's latest projected path.  Once again, the center of the storm stays east of the Midstate.

As we prepare for a rainy Saturday, Florida will need to start thinking about Ike.  Here is the latest track for that strong Hurricane:

Ike could hit Florida by next Tuesday or Wednesday as a major Hurricane.  We will keep you posted on this situation throughout the weekend.  Michael wanted to know if Ike will impact our weather.  Well, at this point, it is simply too early to tell.  Most models want to swing Ike back out across the Atlantic for good after it hits Florida.  We will have to wait and see.

Remember to join me tomorrow morning beginning at 9:00AM for all the latest information on Hanna.  Rob Dixon will be in tomorrow evening keeping you up to date as well.  Thanks for reading the blog and try and have a great weekend!

In meteorology, Buys Ballot's Law states that with your back to the wind in the Northern Hemisphere, low pressure will be to your left and high pressure will be to your right.  The reverse is true in the Southern Hemisphere.

It's that time again...time for the month in review for August.  We almost had a record for the driest August here in the Midstate.  That was quickly shattered when the remnants of Fay brought some relief to the area.  How did we do in the temperature department for the month?  I'll discuss that and more in this blog about the climate for August 2008.

Officially at Harrisburg International Airport, we finished the month of August 1.1 degrees below normal.  That shouldn't be surprising considering many of the days last month felt rather autumn-like!  We did manage a high of 91 degrees back on August 6...that was the highest temperature all month.  The lowest recorded temperature for the month at HIA was 52 back on the morning of August 20.  Some backyards saw temperatures in the 40s on several of those calm, clear nights last month.  The highest temperature ever recorded for August was 104 degrees set back on August 6, 1918.  The lowest recorded temperature was 45 degrees back on August 31, 1976.  In total, we had three days last month where the temperature topped 90 degrees.  For four days last month, high temperatures stayed in the 70s!  All in all, nothing too spectacular in the temperature department for August.

The precipitation was the interesting part about August 2008.  We had 19 days that were completely dry last month at Harrisburg International Airport.  Our normal value for August is 3.24 inches of precipitation.  We finished last month with 1.09 inches in the rain gauge, which is 2.15 inches below normal.  The driest August on record was back in 1995 with only 0.53 inches of rainfall.  Up until we saw the remnants of Fay on August 29, we were on pace for the driest August.  We only had 0.36 inches officially at that time.  Fay brought in 0.73 inches of new rainfall to add to that total.  The most rain we have ever received in August came back in 1933 with 10.67 inches!  Fay helped save some lawns around the area this past month.

We have once again had a rather dry stretch since Fay departed.  That will all change Saturday when Tropical Storm Hanna moves up the coast.  I will have an all new Questions & Answers segment tomorrow on the blog.  Someone wants to know what Hanna will do and if we should be concerned about Ike.  I will answer that question and have another Tropical Update tomorrow...so check back then!  Have a great Thursday!

Here is a common weather myth for you: Highway overpasses can provide safe shelter if you are on the road during a tornado.

This statement is completely false and a true example of a weather myth.  The myth got started thanks to constant news footage showing crews seeking shelter under an overpass and surviving the dangerous storms.  Since those clips have aired, and because the news crew survived, many people assume that highway overpasses are a safe place to seek shelter during a tornado.  The opposite is in fact true.  An overpass does not protect you from a tornado's winds and is an extremely dangerous place to seek shelter.  Anytime you put yourself above ground level during a tornado, you are in harm's way.  Drivers who pull over on the highway and run to overpasses for relief not only risk injury and death to themselves, but also put other motorists in jeopardy by blocking the roadway near the overpass.  High winds from the tornado could also blow debris under the overpass where you are trying to hideout.  Some people have been knocked unconscious by flying rocks and cement from bridges.  The space underneath an overpass is narrow and this actually helps the airflow accelerate, causing faster wind speeds under bridges than the surrounding area.  If you are out driving during a tornado, the best thing to do is get out of your car and find a ditch where you can lie flat and close to the ground.  Another common weather myth has just been debunked!

With all eyes on Hurricane Gustav this Labor Day, I want to shift focus to Tropical Storm Hanna.  This storm could directly impact our area beginning Friday.  Here is a graphical representation of what the tropics look like this morning, including all areas favorable for more tropical cyclone development.

Gustav made landfall today as a category three hurricane.  Time will tell what the damage is like for residents of the Gulf Coast.  Hanna could become a category one storm later this week, but right now indications are that she will more than likely stay a tropical storm when she makes landfall.  Georgia and South Carolina could be the targets for Gustav's cousin.  Here is an infrared satellite image of both storms. 

It's always fascinating to me to look at an image from space like this and realize the true power of Mother Nature and the raw fury of these two storms.  What exactly will Hanna do?  The details are always a little suspect this far in advance, but the following images are one model's predictions for the end of the week.

This image shows the United States Thursday afternoon.  The remnants of Gustav will still be affecting parts of the country like Missouri and Arkansas.  Notice Hanna in the lower right corner.  She begins to make her turn toward the Southeast Coast. 

24 hours later, this image shows Hanna's location Friday afternoon.  She will have made landfall by this time across portions of Georgia and South Carolina.  By Friday evening, we could be seeing the start of rainfall from the storm's outer fringes.  At this point, we are hoping that this rainfall will cause little in the way of flooding and be beneficial to the region.  Let's hope this turns out the be the case.  As the next image displays, however, the Midstate looks to be a bullseye for Hanna's remnants Saturday.

This model paints some very heavy rainfall over Pennsylvania for Saturday morning and afternoon.  Hanna tracks right over our area before departing rather quickly Saturday evening.  If this model holds, then no doubt we are in for a lot of rainfall.  As I mentioned earlier though, hopefully it will only be a benefit and not so much that we can't handle it.  Time will tell as we get closer to the event by the end of this week.

Send me your questions and comments by posting below or send me an email at brettsblog@abc27.com.  Have a great Labor Day!

Did you know that Congress made Labor Day a federal holiday in 1894?  The holiday originated in 1882 because the Central Labor Union wanted to create a day off for the working citizens.

As promised, today I want to blog about the developing situation in the tropics.  Gustav and Hanna are both churning in warm ocean waters and are both slated to become hurricanes relatively soon.  What does this mean for the United States?  First, let's start with an overview of the tropics.

This is the location of Tropical Storm Gustav and Tropical Storm Hanna as of 11:00AM Friday morning.  For the latest position of these storms, click on the link to the National Hurricane Center found in the upper left corner of my blog page.  For those of you that read today's Thack Fact, you will notice two other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.  For now though, let's focus on our two major players.  Here is the latest satellite image of the storms:

Gustav will make his charge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane this weekend.  Right behind him, Hanna now looks poised to become a category one hurricane herself and take aim at Southern Florida or Cuba.  The latest track put forth by the National Hurricane Center is as follows:

Obviously, Gustav bears watching for the Gulf Coast.  Indications are that the storm could land west of the New Orleans area, but anywhere in that red cone is fair game.  New Orleans must be on high alert over the holiday weekend.  A category three storm is a major hurricane and could spell major destruction for the coast if this forecast pans out.

Hanna is another storm that should be watched with a close eye.  Her path seems to take a due west turn over the weekend and that could land her in between Southern Florida and Cuba by next Tuesday morning.  We will have a much better idea of what these two systems will do over the weekend. 

Finally, for those of you heading to Beaver Stadium tomorrow to watch the Nittany Lions take on Coastal Carolina in their opener, you may want to pack an umbrella.  It will not be a wash-out at Beaver Stadium, but there could be a few spotty showers around during game time.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s.  If you are heading up to Happy Valley tomorrow, enjoy the game and cheer extra loud!

That's it for now!  If you want the latest information on Gustav and Hanna over the weekend, remember to click the link above for the National Hurricane Center.  They will have up to date stats and forecasted paths for both storms.  Closer to home, the Labor Day Weekend forecast looks pretty nice.  Until next time...have a great weekend!

A tropical disturbance is defined as an area of organized clouds, showers, and storms originating in the tropics, and occasionally the subtropics, that maintains its identity for 24 hours or more.  It is often the first developmental stage of any tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane.

Most folks probably realize that we have had an incredibly dry month of August...just look at most of the lawns around the Midstate!  I say this as we are experiencing the wimpy leftovers of Fay.  That's exactly what they are...leftovers.  The good moisture stayed to our south.  Most people have not been complaining about the weather this month.  I mean, after all, it has been cool for this time of year, the humidity has been down, and the sun has been shining.  However, we really are experiencing quite a dry spell.  Let's talk numbers.

Normally up to this point in August we should have received 2.78 inches of precipitation.  This year, we have gotten a measly 0.31 inches.  This means that we are 2.47 inches below normal for the month.  That is the official number.  I realize that some backyards have received more and others less, but for record-keeping purposes we go by Harrisburg International Airport.  Speaking of records...let's look at the five driest Augusts that we have ever had.

1995  0.53 inches

1923  0.73 inches

1909  0.81 inches

1957  0.93 inches

1977  0.93 inches

Does something stand out to you?  I know it did to us here in the StormTrak Center.  We are on track to have our driest August on record!  The only real rain threat we have before the end of the month comes today and tomorrow with Fay.  She isn't doing much to help out the numbers either.  We have only received 0.05 inches here at abc27 since midnight yesterday and probably won't add too much to that total.  It would appear to me that 2008 will go down as the driest August for the Midstate of all time.  That's pretty impressive...and I don't mean in a good way.  We could really use a good soaking rain to help out the farmers and the lawns.  Next week looks bone dry and hot...a bit of summer returns for one last fling before fall arrives late next month.  We will keep our fingers crossed.  There are two tropical systems brewing right now.  Perhaps remnants from either one will bring some needed rainfall to Pennsylvania within the next couple weeks.  Hopefully, they will be more potent than Fay.  I will have another Tropical update tomorrow here on the bog.  Until then, have a great Thursday!