Few things have changed since I wrote yesterday, but I wanted to tweak the forecast for Thursday just slightly.  It still looks like Thursday could be damp, but the timing is still in question.  Right now, my bet is on Thursday afternoon and evening.  Some showers could last into Friday morning before some drier air moves overtop the Commonwealth.  Let's start by running the latest GFS model for Thursday afternoon.

The front slated to move through on Thursday is sandwiched between two areas of high pressure.  One is over New England (currently providing us with another great day!), while the other is sitting along the Gulf Coast.  I do not expect a ton of rain with this system, but we are facing a deficit for the month of November, so any rain that does fall will be needed.  By Thursday afternoon, as shown above, the rain is just moving into western Pennsylvania.  The steadiest showers will probably occur Thursday late afternoon and evening around these parts.  A few could linger into Friday morning.  The latest projections look like this for the amount of rain we can expect:

The total you see listed at the top of the graph also includes some rain projected for the beginning of next week.  The rainfall for Thursday/Friday will be minimal at best.  We can probably expect between 0.25 and 0.50 inches.  In other words, while it may be gloomy and gray, don't expect a deluge of rain.  Next week we could get another round, so there is still time to make up our Novembe deficit.

Two other honorable mentions in today's blog include a quick glance at the Harrisburg Holiday Parade forecast for this upcoming Saturday.  Let's have a look at the projected surface map for Saturday:

If the forecast holds based on this model, Saturday would appear to be a rather nice, tranquil day for a parade.  It also looks like it will be relatively mild for a change.  Expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 40s for parade time.  By Saturday afternoon, mid 50s are a good bet!  The second high pressure system behind Thursday's front will provide us with a fairly decent weekend!

The other thing I wanted to make a note of was the mild temperatures.  While it doesn't look like any truly cold air will be arriving for the rest of this week, by Thanksgiving it could be a different story.  Although more than a week away, I wanted to show you the 850 millibar temperature map for Thanksgiving Thursday.  It looks like the weather could turn a bit colder by then:

A deepening trough looks to move eastward next week and that means cold air from Canada will begin to seep southward over New England and Pennsylvania.  With 850s projected to be around the -8 C range, that could spell highs in the 30s around these parts!  We knew we would have to pay for this mild week eventually...it looks like it might be sooner rather than later.  Enjoy the mild Tuesday!

After a two week break due to my wedding and honeymoon, I have returned to the blog to hopefully provide some extra weather insight for those of you seeking it.  I want to start by looking at the week ahead and pointing out the one interesting weather feature headed our way.

The current surface map looks like this as of Monday morning:

The high pressure sitting over western Wisconsin will provide our region with fair skies and tranquil weather through Wednesday.  The storm system sitting over the central United States will take its time moving eastward thanks to that high.  I don't expect clouds to push into our neck of the woods until late Wednesday.  Showers should hold off until Thursday...or maybe longer.

This is the projected surface map for Wednesday morning and the low pressure system has moved only slightly.  The high is now over New England and will help keep nice weather around through Wednesday and maybe beyond.  However, the occluded front over the Ohio Valley could bring some clouds into Pennsylvania as early as Wednesday afternoon.  That low is really the only exciting weather feature on the maps for this week (until Sunday -- more on that near week's end).  Earlier today, the WRF model was bringing showers into the lower Susquehanna Valley for the daypart Thursday.  Now, it keeps the showers out west. 

The shower activity over western Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon is only spotty at best.  This model wants to hint at the moisture holding off another day until Friday.  We may luck out and have the front completely wash-out giving us little rainfall this week.  For those of you that like rain, just wait until the weekend.  I expect the models to flip back and forth on this one, so stay tuned if you have a vested interest in Thursday's forecast.

The GFS decides to hold off the precipitation until Friday now as well.  It also looks like a decent rainfall is possible from this system.  My guess at this point is to say between 0.50 and 1.00 inches is possible either Thursday or Friday.  It also looks like the mild temperatures will persist over the next week to two weeks.  Highs in the mid to upper 50s are the rule through week's end even with a little rainfall.

That's it for now, but I will be back with updates throughout the week.  It looks like a coastal low could give us some showers on Sunday and I'll talk more about that as the weekend gets closer.  Have a great Monday and enjoy this stellar weather!

I wanted to write a brief column before I leave for my wedding and honeymoon to talk about November's outlook.  I will not return until mid November, so at least this will be a little something to keep you all going until then.  Here is a quick look at temperature and precipitation for next month:

Unfortunately, not too much can be gleaned from the Climate Prediction Center's temperature outlook for next month.  The Northeast stands an equal chance to see above normal or below normal temperatures.  The western part of the country, however, looks to be above normal for the month.  Chances are, if the western half of the country is above normal, the eastern half will be stuck in a long wave trough and be cool.  This has been the pattern as of late and I see no reason for that to change.  In my opinion, next month will be below normal in the temperature department as a whole.

The precipitation outlook for next month doesn't offer anything too exciting either.  Most of the nation stands an equal chance to see above normal or below normal amounts of precipitation.  The south looks to be slightly wet, while the Pacific Northwest will be rather dry.  If the Northeast is stuck in a long wave trough (which I think is more than likely), than we will continue to see moisture from the Gulf of Mexico feed up through the Tennessee Valley, or along the coast, and bring central Pennsylvania a good deal of moisture.  Again, I am willing to bet on a greater than average amount of precipitation next month for our region.  The other big question is whether most of the precipitation will be rain or snow.  That, my friends, is a question for another day.

My quick take on next month is that it will continue to be cool and wet, much like October.  If the pattern we are currently experiencing holds through the winter, than it is indeed likely we will be setting the stage for some potential winter storms.  Still a little early to tell, but November will be a tell-tale sign of what the winter holds.

Thanks for reading the blog and checking in faithfully.  Also, thanks to all the loyal viewers of abc27 Daybreak.  We appreciate you and love having you along every morning for the ride.  Rob Dixon will take over for the next two weeks while I am away, but fear not!  I will be back in mid November and we will talk more about the upcoming winter at that time!  Have a great two weeks and I'll see you real soon!