I wanted to write a brief column before I leave for my wedding and honeymoon to talk about November's outlook.  I will not return until mid November, so at least this will be a little something to keep you all going until then.  Here is a quick look at temperature and precipitation for next month:

Unfortunately, not too much can be gleaned from the Climate Prediction Center's temperature outlook for next month.  The Northeast stands an equal chance to see above normal or below normal temperatures.  The western part of the country, however, looks to be above normal for the month.  Chances are, if the western half of the country is above normal, the eastern half will be stuck in a long wave trough and be cool.  This has been the pattern as of late and I see no reason for that to change.  In my opinion, next month will be below normal in the temperature department as a whole.

The precipitation outlook for next month doesn't offer anything too exciting either.  Most of the nation stands an equal chance to see above normal or below normal amounts of precipitation.  The south looks to be slightly wet, while the Pacific Northwest will be rather dry.  If the Northeast is stuck in a long wave trough (which I think is more than likely), than we will continue to see moisture from the Gulf of Mexico feed up through the Tennessee Valley, or along the coast, and bring central Pennsylvania a good deal of moisture.  Again, I am willing to bet on a greater than average amount of precipitation next month for our region.  The other big question is whether most of the precipitation will be rain or snow.  That, my friends, is a question for another day.

My quick take on next month is that it will continue to be cool and wet, much like October.  If the pattern we are currently experiencing holds through the winter, than it is indeed likely we will be setting the stage for some potential winter storms.  Still a little early to tell, but November will be a tell-tale sign of what the winter holds.

Thanks for reading the blog and checking in faithfully.  Also, thanks to all the loyal viewers of abc27 Daybreak.  We appreciate you and love having you along every morning for the ride.  Rob Dixon will take over for the next two weeks while I am away, but fear not!  I will be back in mid November and we will talk more about the upcoming winter at that time!  Have a great two weeks and I'll see you real soon!

It is no secret that October has been a chilly month thus far and there is no true warm-up in sight.  A coastal low pressure system will bring a chilly rain to the region tomorrow and Friday and the weekend doesn't look much better.  With cold air locked in place, there is even the slight chance for some snow to mix with the rain over the next couple days, especially across the higher terrain.  This is not a time to panic just because I mentioned the dreaded "S" word.  Early season snowfall is not unheard of, but this low pressure system has the track of a classic winter storm.  There is just one problem -- it isn't winter yet.  The ground is not frozen and any snow that would fall over the mountains would be light and probably not accumulate much.  Thursday and Friday night the temperatures could support some flakes mixing with the rain across most of the region, but it is a slight possibility at best.  Let break everything down:

The following is an image of the GFS computer model and indicates a nice coastal low pressure system.

This synoptic set-up is classic for a big winter storm.  We have a coastal low pressure system with plenty of moisture, a blocking high over southern Canada, and cold air locked in place.  However, it is too early in the season to think of this as a winter storm.  It could, however, produce some significant snowfall for New England and parts of New York state.  The Canadian high pressure system is so important for a couple reasons.  The first reason being that it helps establish an easterly flow which feeds moisture back into the Susquehanna Valley.  The second is that it allows cold Canadian air to drain down the Appalachains and keep most of the east coast cold.  It is certainly possible for the ridge tops over central Pennsylvania to see some snow mix in and that could create some problems.  Early season snows make trees more vulnerable to snapping and falling on power lines.  The biggest threat area will be the northern tier counties of Pennsylvania.

The following is GFS estimated precipitation and type in graphical form:

This model keeps all precipitation in the form of rain through Friday and this is not a surprise.  Temperatures will be in the lower 40s and upper air temperatures still support rainfall.  The one thing to note is how much rain is projected.  This has over 3 inches falling at Harrisburg International airport from Thursday through the weekend!  That seems a little high, but I think 2 inches is a real possibility.  I checked graphs for Johnstown and Williamsport and the GFS does pick up on some snowfall for those locations.  Johnstown is especially vulnerable because temperatures there will remain in the 30s.

The WRF model takes a closer look at Pennsylvania over the next two days:

This is Thursday afternoon and the left side is surface temperatures, while the right side shows precipitation and 850 temperatures.  Surface temperatures will be in the 40s for the Susquehanna Valley, but there is a line of 30s extending downward through the ridge tops.  The freezing 850 line, which is a good rain/snow indicator runs right along I-80.  Therefore, tomorrow should pose less of a snow threat for areas farthest to the south.  Friday is a different story...

This model depicts the 30s gaining on the Susquehanna Valley and the freezing line pushing to the south and east.  Mifflin, Juniata, and Huntingdon counties will be the most vulnerable for some wet snow over this time period.  Even upper Dauphin county could get some flakes to mix in late in the day on Friday.  This is such a tricky situation to forecast because of how early in the season it is for snowfall.  I want to emphasize again, however, that this will be a RAIN event with the slight chance for some wet snow to mix in especially across the mountains and northern tier.  It is a situation that bears watching and patience.

This graphic is from our in house model and shows accumulated rainfall through Friday at 9:00PM.  Certainly, this system is capable of producing some heavy rainfall.  Harrisburg, York, and Lancaster could all see between 1 and 2 inches of rain through Friday night and this does not include rain that will come over the weekend.  Take the threat of snow away for a minute, and we are looking at a mighty good soaker.  Several days of chilly rain will become rather depressing if you ask me.

My last comment for the day will be about SKEW-T charts.  SKEW-T charts allow us to view the upper atmosphere and determine what type of precipitation will fall.  The following image is a projected SKEW-T for the upper atmosphere over Harrisburg International Airport for Thursday.

This may look confusing to read, but all you need to know is that the green line is temperature and the red line is dewpoint.  The higher you go on the chart, the higher you are in the atmosphere.  If the two lines are close together, this means there is plenty of moisture available in the atmosphere.  The other thing of note is the 0 number in the bottom center.  This is the freezing mark.  If the lines move to the right of that number, this could spell some snow mixing in with the rainfall.  The first model on the left side does indeed have both lines to the right of the 0.  The second model on the right is not as drastic, but this is a good indication that the atmosphere could be cold enough to support some snow falling across the area tomorrow evening.  Again, patience is the key because the next model runs could feature something completely different.

Whew...a lot of information here!  Remember two very important things...snow happens in Pennsylvania and this event will be mainly rain.  However, the potential exists and it requires mentioning at this point.  Stay tuned and stay calm.  More information coming tomorrow...

After a fairly nice weekend, reality settles in across Central Pennsylvania this week with below normal temperatures and some rain before the upcoming weekend.  How cold will things get? Rest assured it will not be as cold as some parts of Montana this morning.  I saw a reading of 2 degrees from Cut Bank, Montana at 6:00AM this morning!  This is completely unbelievable for this time of year and we can truly call this air mass "arctic"!  While the mercury will not quite drop to those numbers around here, I do think highs in the mid 40s are possible by week's end.  A coastal low pressure system will move in by Thursday bringing a cold and raw rainfall to the lower Susquehanna Valley.  Parts of Pennsylvania (the Laurel Highlands and northern tier) could receive some early season snowfall by the end of the week.  The Climate Prediction Center has issued its temperature outlook for the next 6-10 days and the news doesn't get any better.

Ridging out west will provide warm conditions for the middle part of autumn for places like Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and up to Seattle.  Closer to home, a long wave trough will allow cold, Canadian air to filter down into much of New England and the Mid Atlantic next week.  In fact, the dark blue color indicates temperatures will be well below normal.  October looks to be a cold month with little chance for a warm-up.  Rather than "Indian Summer", we may head right into winter.  This cooler-than-average temperature outbreak extends as far south as Louisiana and Florida.

This is a map of 850 millibar temperatures for THIS Thursday.  The extended period looks to stay on the chilly side (as I outlined above), but we need to deal with this week first.  850 temperatures look to be between -4 C and 0 C heading into Thursday and Friday.  This translates to highs in the mid to upper 40s by week's end!  Combine that with some precipitation moving in, and you have cold, raw, and rainy conditions.  Plus, the higher elevations and northern tier could see their first snowflakes of the season in just a few short days.  Speaking of snowfall, I want to show you the official snow cover map from across the United States.  Check it out through yesterday:

As indicated above, believe it or not, some places have snow already in the United States (and it's not just the mountainous regions).  Granted, the northern Rockies do have plenty of snow on the ground, including some areas with well over a foot.  However, the upper Midwest has also received some measurable snow already.  Parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota have picked up between 2 and 4 inches and some parts of Nebraska have between 4 and 8 inches.  We may not be ready to talk snow just yet, but we have to.  It's only a matter of time before it's our turn...

Will we bounce back at all in the temperature department before fall ends?  There is not enough evidence for me at this time to feel like we will see anymore truly "warm" days beyond tomorrow.  The chill in the air could be here to stay until next spring.  Let's watch and wait.  This winter could be very interesting...  Until next time, peace out!