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Friday September 05, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Questions & Answers: Tropical Update


September 5, 2008

With all eyes focused on the Tropics this time of year, and with the East Coast preparing for Hanna, this question came at the right time!

Michael writes:

"I really like the forecast images showing possible rainfall projections for Hanna.  What are the odds the next storm, Ike, will impact our region?  Thanks."

Let's start with Tropical Storm Hanna.  All indications are that Hanna will remain a Tropical Storm when she makes landfall this evening across the Carolinas.  Here is the latest view of the Tropics as a whole:

Hurricane_Overview-3.gif picture by brettsblog

The National Hurricane Center keeps Hanna's track to our east.  This means that the really nasty stuff will stay over New Jersey.  We will see a rainy and breezy day tomorrow, but there shouldn't be any severe threat.  As for flooding, some of our counties are under a flood watch from tomorrow morning through Sunday afternoon.  Those counties include Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Schuylkill, and York.  There really is not any concern for major flooding out of this system because it will be a fast mover, and as I stated earlier, the heaviest rains should stay to our east.  Flash flooding may become an issue if Hanna dumps a lot of rain over a single spot in a short amount of time.  We will have to wait and see on that one.  For now, plan on an old-fashioned rainy day for Saturday.  Hopefully, this rain will be beneficial for most folks.

Here are some forecast model images of where the rainfall will be located tomorrow at 8:00AM and 2:00PM, respectively.

Hanna_1-1.gif picture by brettsblog

Notice a nice narrow band of rain located over Eastern Pennsylvania tomorrow morning.  This should help funnel in some much needed moisture around these parts.  Hanna's center will still be well to our south at this time.  The main area of low pressure is located across the Carolinas.

Hanna_2-1.gif picture by brettsblog

This image shows Hanna by Saturday afternoon.  Now the center is located just south of New Jersey.  Take note of the big red blob underneath that low.  That blob is the main area of precipitation associated with Hanna.  We look to miss out on that...this is good news for flooding concerns.  However, it will continue to rain throughout much of the day tomorrow.

The National Hurricane Center has released Hanna's latest projected path.  Once again, the center of the storm stays east of the Midstate.

Hanna_Track.gif picture by brettsblog

As we prepare for a rainy Saturday, Florida will need to start thinking about Ike.  Here is the latest track for that strong Hurricane:

Ike_Track.gif picture by brettsblog

Ike could hit Florida by next Tuesday or Wednesday as a major Hurricane.  We will keep you posted on this situation throughout the weekend.  Michael wanted to know if Ike will impact our weather.  Well, at this point, it is simply too early to tell.  Most models want to swing Ike back out across the Atlantic for good after it hits Florida.  We will have to wait and see.

Remember to join me tomorrow morning beginning at 9:00AM for all the latest information on Hanna.  Rob Dixon will be in tomorrow evening keeping you up to date as well.  Thanks for reading the blog and try and have a great weekend!

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