It's now time for an all new Questions & Answers. 

Murv writes:

"When can we expect to start getting more summer-like weather and get out of this rainy pattern?"

Great question Murv!  I know many people who are looking forward to summer-like weather.  Unfortunately, I don't think the weather pattern will turn around any time soon.  Let's take a look at why.

The first factor in this cool pattern that we have been experiencing is the NAO.  That's right, the good old North Atlantic Oscillation is at it again.  A while ago, I wrote a blog entry explaining the phases of the NAO and how they seem to correlate pretty well with temperature patterns in the Northeast.  The NAO has once again shifted to a negative pattern, which typically means cooler weather for us.  Just take a look at this past Monday when parts of Pennsylvania over the ridge tops received some light snow!  It's May for crying out loud!  Enough!  However, it does not appear that the NAO is going to shift to a positive phase anytime soon, which means we could stay below normal for the foreseeable future.

Take a look at one of the models we run here in the StormTrak Center.  It predicts general temperature trends for the next 10 days.  It does not paint a better picture.

The deep blue covering some of the Great Lakes region and northwestern Pennsylvania indicates that those areas will see well below normal numbers in the temperature department over the next two weeks.  There does not seem to be an indication to me that we are going to see a drastic warm-up anytime soon.

The next item we are going to look at is temperatures in the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Think of the atmosphere as a giant bookcase with different shelves.  The surface, where we are located is the 1000 millibar shelf.  I want to examine temperatures on the 850 millibar layer shelf because, very often, they correlate nicely to what we see at the surface.  In other words, if it is chilly at 850 millibars, it is probably chilly at the surface.  Warmer temperatures higher in the atmosphere will also typically mean warmer numbers at the surface.  So, do we see a warm up coming at 850 millibars?  Let's have a look!

Here is a look at the 850 millibar temperatures for today.  Notice we are sitting pretty nice ahead of a cold front that will swing through here overnight into tomorrow morning.  Generally, it appears the 850 millibar temperatures over our area are around 12 degrees Celsius.  Typically we add around 13 degrees to that in order to get a reasonable estimate of the surface temperature give or take a few degrees.  So what is 25 degrees Celsius converted into Fahrenheit?  Well, it comes out to about 77 degrees!  That's the kind of temperature reading we are seeing across the viewing area this afternoon.  Most places are in the mid 70s!  Unfortunately, let's take a look at the rest of the week...it doesn't look to promising!

This would be a look at Thursday's 850 temperatures.  We take a dive to around 8 degrees Celsius or so.  If we do the math, that translates to a surface temperature of around 70 degrees or so.  This still isn't too bad for the middle of May.  Normal temperatures for this time of year are in the lower 70s.  Tomorrow looks like we might see some sunshine for the second half of the day, so I do expect temperatures to climb into the low 70s for highs.  The real turn for the worse will come Friday as we are socked in with rain and clouds thanks to another storm system sliding along to our south.

Friday's 850 temperatures drop to around 0 degrees Celsius or so.  Let's do the math again.  This translates to daytime highs here only in the mid to upper 50s!  Friday looks to be a repeat of Monday with cloudy, cool, and damp weather rearing its ugly head once again.  What about the weekend?

As the low pressure system departs on Saturday, it leaves behind a chilly flow from the northwest.  Once again, 850 millibar temperatures would indicate to me that we will only see highs in the mid 60s for Saturday afternoon and probably again on Sunday.  While this doesn't seem too awful, keep in mind that it will still be below normal for the middle of May.  As for the rainy trend, that doesn't look much better either.  After the main area of low pressure exits the region late Friday, several other weaker systems will march through beginning over the weekend and lasting through the middle of next week.  The shower threat remains in the forecast nearly everyday. 

One more thing to consider with all this talk about cooler temperatures.  How does the sun look?  Remember I also wrote a blog a few weeks ago about the recent inactivity of the sun?  Perhaps the sun looks more active now...let's see!

This photograph of the sun was taken today and shows not one single sunspot.  What does this mean?  It means that the sun is dormant.  Solar scientists fear that if the sun does not show signs of activity soon, we could be dealing with a major cool down across the globe.  The sun is entering a natural cycle of less activity which simply means that we could see temperatures trend downward over the next several years.  With the sun emitting less energy, it stands to reason that we will see cooler temperature readings. 

Murv, all I can say is that we are hoping for the best.  Conditions will improve to more summer-like weather eventually, but it may take until the official start of summer in mid-June to do so.  Until then, I do not see any major warm-ups in the forecast based on everything we just looked at.  This summer could turn out to be cooler than average as well...we will have to wait and see on that one.  Thanks for the question and while I'm sure this wasn't quite the answer you were hoping for, I hope everybody was able to learn a little something along the way.

If you have a question or a comment for me, just post it below or write to me at brettsblog@abc27.com!  Seize the day!